IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP PRODUCTION IN THE NIGER DELTA REGION OF NIGERIA: A CASE STUDY OF RIVERS STATE
Chapter One
Introduction
1.1 Background of the Study
Agriculture remains the cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, employing over 70% of the population and contributing approximately 24% to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as of 2025249222. This sector is especially critical in rural communities, where smallholder farmers depend on it for sustenance, food security, and economic resilience. In the Niger Delta region,encompassing states such as Rivers, Delta, and Bayelsa,agriculture is largely subsistence-oriented, with farmers focusing on staple crops like cassava, yam, maize, and plantain to fulfill local needs and household consumption. Yet, the region’s agricultural output faces escalating threats from complex environmental pressures, notably climate change, which intensifies inherent vulnerabilities and obstructs pathways to sustainable development.
Climate change, marked by escalating temperatures, shifting rainfall regimes, more frequent extreme weather occurrences, and rising sea levels, poses severe risks to global agricultural frameworks, with Sub-Saharan African nations, including Nigeria, enduring a disproportionately heavy tolled307a. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts that, absent robust adaptation interventions, crop yields in this area could plummet by as much as 50% by 2050, precipitating acute food insecurity and substantial economic setbacks (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2022). In Nigeria, these effects are magnified by the nation’s profound reliance on rain-fed agriculture, where more than 90% of crop cultivation hinges on erratic natural rainfall, rendering it acutely prone to climatic fluctuations. Contemporary research illuminates how climate change erodes soil fertility, amplifies pest and disease outbreaks, and disrupts critical planting and harvesting timelines, collectively eroding productivity (Aroyehun, 2023). For instance, altered precipitation patterns have been associated with a 15-25% decline in maize yields across southern Nigeria, as erratic dry spells hinder seed germination and prolong vegetative growth phases (Aroyehun, 2024).
Narrowing the lens to the Niger Delta, the area’s distinctive ecological makeup,featuring expansive wetlands, mangrove forests, and coastal lowlands,amplifies its susceptibility to climate-driven hazards. Erratic rainfall has triggered extended droughts in upland zones and catastrophic flooding in low-lying areas, culminating in crop inundation, accelerated soil erosion, and nutrient depletion through leaching. Empirical investigations into the interplay of climate change and population dynamics on food security in Nigeria reveal that these forces have driven a 10-20% drop in staple crop outputs over the last decade, with smallholder farmers in the southern belts, particularly those in the Niger Delta, suffering the brunt due to scant access to resilient technologies (Aroyehun, 2023). Moreover, temperature surges of roughly 1.1°C since the 1980s have correlated with intensified pest pressures, including devastating armyworm incursions in maize cultivations, alongside diminished tuber integrity in yam and cassava varieties (Onyeneke et al., 2024). In Rivers State, a pivotal focus of this thesis, annual precipitation surpassing 2,000-3,000 mm has grown increasingly capricious, fostering waterlogging that imperils root crops and fosters rampant fungal pathologies like cassava root rot.
These climate-induced perils are further aggravated by anthropogenic stressors endemic to the Niger Delta, including ecological dilapidation from petroleum extraction and gas flaring. Known as Nigeria’s “oil cradle,” the region has weathered generations of contamination from crude spills, which befoul arable lands and aquatic resources, thereby curtailing agricultural viability. Analyses spanning 2000 to 2022 on the ramifications of oil spills and gas flaring for Niger Delta agriculture document soil acidification and compromised crop viability, with afflicted farmers logging yield shortfalls up to 30% (Enwa, 2025). Gas flaring, in particular, emits heat-trapping pollutants that elevate local temperatures and deposit acidic residues, exacerbating soil degradation and reducing cassava tuber yields by up to 20-25% in proximity to flare sites, as observed in Delta State communities adjacent to Rivers (Ojeh, 2022). This confluence of climate change and industrial pollution engenders a pernicious feedback loop of fragility, wherein ascending sea levels intensify saltwater incursion into freshwater lenses, salinizing soils and deeming them infertile for conventional staples like cassava (Manihot esculenta) and yam (Dioscorea spp.) (Omokaro, 2025).
Cutting-edge empirical data accentuate the disparate repercussions of climate change on Nigeria’s crop portfolio, demonstrating that while cereals like rice may endure tempered downturns, tuberous staples such as cassava and yam evince heightened fragility to hydrological deficits and thermal extremes (Onyeneke et al., 2024). In the South-South geopolitical zone, inclusive of the Niger Delta, vegetable cultivators like those of fluted pumpkin (Telfairia occidentalis) have pivoted to adaptive tactics encompassing crop diversification and enhanced seed stocks; nonetheless, these endeavors are frequently hamstrung by socioeconomic impediments, including credit inaccessibility and sparse extension outreach (Ifeanyi-Obi et al., 2017). A 2025 inquiry into climate vulnerability in Niger Delta cassava husbandry underscores the imperative of fiscal risk mitigation, observing that unhedged forfeits from inundations and aridities have ensnared numerous farmers in indigence cycles, with mean yearly revenue erosions of 15-25% (Aroyehun et al., 2025). Similarly, comparative vulnerability appraisals of agrarian and piscatorial households in the Niger Delta reveal that farming families exhibit elevated exposure to amalgamated stressors—climate variability, pollution, and resource depletion—manifesting in livelihood disruptions like income volatility and asset divestment (Onyenekwe et al., 2024)030726.
The ramifications of climate change transcend immediate yield erosions to engulf wider food sovereignty and occupational upheavals. In Nigeria, where agriculture buttresses over 80% of rustic domiciles, anticipated escalations in cataclysmic episodes could uproot settlements and accelerate peri-urban influxes, overburdening metropolises such as Port Harcourt (Nigerian Meteorological Agency [NiMet], 2025). Resilience audits among arable crop tillers in Delta State, contiguous to Rivers, disclose that covariates like scholastic attainment, holding magnitude, and informational entree profoundly modulate adaptive prowess, with merely 40% of tillers evincing elevated fortitude (Giweze & Ighoro, 2023). These revelations spotlight the exigency for region-specific inquiries, as panoptic national metrics frequently eclipse localized idiosyncrasies, such as the Niger Delta’s mire-reliant agronomies (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture [IITA], 2024). Furthermore, financing lacunae compound vulnerabilities; a financing gap perspective posits that diminishing fiscal shortfalls,averaging $106.55 per smallholder,could bolster adaptive capacities, yet four in five farmers remain financially exposed to climatic perils (Ojo et al., 2024)4b32c0. In Rivers State, socioeconomic drivers like household scale, extension frequency, and non-farm revenues critically shape adaptation uptake among crop farmers in locales like Ahoada West and Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, where only 60-70% of tillers deploy multifaceted strategies (Wilcox et al., 2025)a56300.
This thesis thus probes the bespoke repercussions of climate change on crop husbandry in Rivers State, leveraging case exemplars from salient local government precincts: Port Harcourt, Obio/Akpor, and Ikwerre. By scrutinizing archival climatic trajectories, tiller cognizances, and prospective adaptive modalities, the inquiry endeavors to tender pragmatic perspicacity for legislators, pedagogues, and field operatives. In essence, redressing these exigencies is indispensable for harmonizing with Nigeria’s pledges to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), and nurturing climate-fortified agronomy in one of the federation’s most fecund yet imperiled enclaves.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Notwithstanding Nigeria’s agrarian plenitude, crop outputs in the Niger Delta have plateaued or regressed amid climatic vicissitudes. Tilers chronicle forfeits from unforeseeable meteorology, engendering alimentary precariousness, indigence, and rustic-metropolitan exoduses. Prevalent erudition preponderantly fixates on nationwide quanta, eliding regional particularities like the Niger Delta’s singular fenland biota. This interstice impedes efficacious ordinance crafting and didactic initiatives in Nigerian academies, wherein agrarian disciples necessitate pragmatic, datum-corroborated scrutiny for their endeavors. Exacerbating this, adaptive stratagems,such as drought-resistant cultivars and diversified rotations,are sporadically embraced owing to informational deficits and fiscal hurdles, perpetuating a cycle of diminished yields and heightened exposure (Aroyehun, 2024; Onyenekwe et al., 2024).
1.3 Objectives of the Study
The paramount aim is to appraise the repercussion of climate change upon crop husbandry in Rivers State. Discrete aims encompass:
To dissect archival inclinations in climatic quanta (thermometry, pluviosity) and their covariation with crop outputs.
To gauge the socio-fiscal corollaries for petite tillers.
To pinpoint and advocate adaptive modalities for perennial tillage.
To furnish perspicacity for agrarian ordinance and pedagogy in Nigerian academies.
1.4 Research Questions
In what manner have climatic quanta transmuted in Rivers State across the antecedent two decades?
What quantum of repercussion obtains upon outputs of principal staples like cassava, yam, and maize?
What adaptive artifices do tillers presently deploy, and what is their efficaciousness?
What ordinance exhortations can augment fortitude in the precinct?
1.5 Significance of the Study
This dissertation shall redound to Nigerian academies by exemplifying a paradigm for disciple ventures in agrarian lore, tendering empirical quanta for syllabi elaboration. It shall moreover enlighten legislators, outreach functionaries, and tillers on climate-savvy agronomy, redounding to federal aspirations like the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2 (Zero Hunger) and 13 (Climate Action). By illuminating localized adaptive lacunae and financing imperatives, the study shall empower interventions that curtail vulnerability depths by up to 56% among smallholders, fostering inclusive resilience (Ojo et al., 2024).
1.6 Scope and Limitations
The scrutiny circumscribes Rivers State, concentrating upon three local government areas, with quanta garnered from 2024-2025. Constraints encompass dependence upon self-declared tiller narrations and prospective skews from meteorologic seasonality. Supplementary hurdles include the paucity of hyper-localized climatic quanta and the challenge of isolating climate effects from conflated pollutants like gas flaring residues.
References
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