ETHNIC POLITICS AND 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NIGERIA: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FOR DEMOCRATIC SURVIVAL

Abstract

This study explored the influence of ethnic politics on voter behavior and electoral outcomes in Nigeria, with a focus on the 2023 presidential election. A cross-sectional survey research design was adopted, and data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered to a sample of 333 respondents. The data were analyzed using SPSS27, and t-tests were conducted to test the hypotheses posed in the study. The findings revealed that ethnic affiliation significantly influenced the voter decisions in the 2023 presidential election, with respondents indicating that ethnic loyalty was a key motivator in their voting behavior, often overriding political ideology. Furthermore, it was found that political parties and candidates heavily relied on ethnic-based appeals to garner votes, reflecting the longstanding ethnic divisions within the Nigerian political landscape. The analysis also showed that ethnic politics posed several challenges to Nigeria's democracy, including hindering national unity, marginalizing minority groups, increasing political corruption, and fueling inter-ethnic violence. The study concluded that ethnic politics has a substantial impact on Nigeria’s electoral process, leading to polarized voting patterns and undermining democratic stability. The findings underscored the need for inclusive political policies, civic education programs, and electoral reforms aimed at reducing the influence of ethnic bias. By addressing these challenges, Nigeria’s democracy could become more resilient, promoting national unity and more issue-based political engagement. The study recommended that political parties and civic organizations play a more active role in reducing ethnic politics through education, inclusivity, and reform.

CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

Ethnic politics has persistently shaped Nigeria’s political history, consistently influencing its governance structures, electoral processes, and democratic development since independence. As one of the most ethnically diverse nations in the world comprising over 250 ethnic groups, Nigeria has often found its political narrative intertwined with identity-based mobilization (Isiaq, Adebiyi, & Bakare, 2018). The 2023 presidential election reaffirmed this trend, where ethnicity once again played a decisive role in determining voter alignment, campaign rhetoric, and the composition of political coalitions. Rather than fostering national integration, the enduring politicization of ethnic identities has perpetuated division, undermining the very foundation of Nigeria’s democratic experiment.

Ethnic considerations in Nigeria’s electoral politics are neither novel nor coincidental. Historically, regional and ethnic cleavages have been exploited by political elites to gain support and maintain influence (Jega, 2023). This phenomenon, often described as “identity politics,” involves the use of ethnic affiliation as a primary factor in political mobilization, thereby diminishing issue-based campaigning. Political parties frequently align along ethno-regional lines, encouraging constituents to vote based on perceived group interests rather than national agendas (Iwara, 2024). Consequently, the national interest is subordinated to parochial demands, with state resources being distributed disproportionately to satisfy ethnic patronage networks.

The 2023 presidential election was emblematic of this trend. Amidst growing public dissatisfaction with previous administrations and socioeconomic instability, ethnic sentiment became a powerful tool for voter mobilization. Candidates were frequently evaluated not by their policies but by their ethno-regional origins and religious affiliations (Olayode, 2023). This pattern is not without precedent. As Sule, Azizuddin, Sani, and Mat (2024) argue, the formation of major opposition blocs in Nigeria, such as the All Progressives Congress (APC), often reflects ethno-political calculations rather than ideological coherence. These alignments were evident in the 2023 election, where political campaigns were structured around tribal affiliations, reinforcing long-standing regional divides.

Voting behavior in Nigeria has often mirrored ethnic lines. Ujo (2022) highlights how voting is rarely an expression of individual civic duty but is often coerced through ethnic and communal loyalty. This is reinforced by Norris and Mattes (2023), who found that in several African nations, including Nigeria, partisan identification is heavily influenced by ethnic identity and structural factors rather than policy preference or leadership quality. In the context of Nigeria’s 2023 election, this pattern persisted as electorates in various states overwhelmingly supported candidates from their ethnic group, further deepening sectional divisions.

Beyond electoral behavior, ethnic politics has far-reaching implications for governance and institutional legitimacy. According to Osaghae (2023), the legacy of structural adjustment programs in Nigeria created inequalities that further entrenched ethnic divisions, as different groups perceived state policies as favoring particular regions over others. These disparities have often translated into claims of marginalization and exclusion, thus fuelling agitation and weakening the credibility of state institutions. Ethnic favoritism in federal appointments, resource allocation, and infrastructural development has led to perceptions of injustice and mistrust in the democratic process (Salih, 2023).

Moreover, the use of ethnic narratives in political discourse often exacerbates insecurity. Hassan (n.d.) observes that ethnic polarization has not only affected electoral outcomes but also contributed to institutional fragility, as groups mobilize along identity lines in response to real or perceived threats. The 2023 election, conducted amidst rising insecurity, witnessed candidates capitalizing on ethnic grievances, framing themselves as defenders of their people. This further undermined national unity and complicated the already fragile democratic landscape. The politicization of ethnicity thus serves both as a campaign strategy and a destabilizing force, impeding efforts at fostering inclusive governance.

The intersection of identity politics and youth mobilization was also a notable feature of the 2023 election. The rise of Peter Obi and the "Obidient" movement, largely driven by urban youth, signified a shift in political consciousness. However, even this seemingly progressive wave could not entirely escape ethnic undertones. While the movement appealed to many disenchanted Nigerians, its strongest base was predominantly in the southeastern region, Obi’s ethnic homeland (Chukwurah, n.d.; Bokoro, n.d.). Although this movement demonstrated the potential for issue-based political engagement, it also highlighted the limits of transcending ethnic loyalties in a deeply divided polity.

Ethnic politics does not exist in a vacuum; it is reinforced through media narratives, party structures, and even international perceptions. As Boadi (2023) notes, democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa is frequently challenged by the fusion of identity and power, where ethnicity becomes a currency for electoral viability. Nigeria is a prime example of this phenomenon. Political rhetoric is often laced with ethnic allusions, and election results are interpreted through an ethno-regional lens. This undermines the legitimacy of electoral processes, as losing groups tend to view outcomes as orchestrated ethnic conquests rather than democratic expressions.

Furthermore, the global context of identity politics has emboldened these tendencies in Nigeria. Norris and Inglehart (2023) explain how cultural backlash against globalization and perceived marginalization fuels populist and identity-based movements across the world. In Nigeria, this global pattern manifests through local actors who exploit ethnic fears and economic anxieties to galvanize support. This is particularly dangerous in a fragile democracy, where state institutions are yet to attain full autonomy and credibility. As Huddy, Mason, and Aarøe (2023) argue, affective polarization rooted in group identity can significantly distort political persuasion and public discourse, leading to the erosion of democratic norms.

In democratic theory, the principle of inclusive participation assumes that individuals vote based on informed choices about policy, leadership, and national direction. However, in practice, Nigerian elections are often reduced to contests between ethnic champions. Joseph (1981) warns that when elections occur under the shadow of ethnic patronage, democracy loses its essence and becomes a façade for elite competition. The result is a cyclic pattern where electoral victories rarely translate into effective governance or national development.

The prevalence of ethnic politics also raises questions about the future of Nigeria’s federal structure. According to Cheeseman (2024), when elections are manipulated—whether through ethnic manipulation or electoral fraud—the credibility of the system is compromised. While electoral reforms have been initiated to address issues of transparency and inclusiveness, these efforts are often thwarted by entrenched ethnic interests and political resistance. This structural weakness was visible in the conduct and aftermath of the 2023 election, where allegations of ethnic bias in electoral administration further damaged public trust.

Nevertheless, there are glimmers of hope. The emergence of civil society movements, increased youth engagement, and calls for electoral reforms suggest a growing demand for democratic renewal. Wonah (2024) emphasizes the need to reframe identity politics in Nigeria towards inclusive nation-building, where diversity is harnessed as a strength rather than a division. This involves promoting civic education, reforming party structures to discourage ethnic zoning, and enhancing the independence of electoral bodies.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Ethnic politics has remained a persistent obstacle to democratic consolidation in Nigeria, particularly evident during the 2023 presidential election. Despite decades of democratic practice and numerous electoral reforms, identity-based politics continues to shape voter behavior, influence party formation, and compromise national unity (Jega, 2023). Elections that should serve as instruments of democratic choice are increasingly reduced to ethnic contests, where candidates are assessed not by competence or ideology, but by their regional and ethnic affiliations (Olayode, 2023). The 2023 election highlighted these divisions, as political actors and voters largely aligned along ethno-religious lines, thereby undermining the democratic ethos of inclusivity and national cohesion.

Although several studies have addressed the role of ethnicity in Nigerian politics, there remains a paucity of empirical research focusing specifically on how ethnic politics shaped the 2023 presidential election and what implications this holds for democratic survival in a rapidly changing socio-political landscape. Existing literature, such as the works of Isiaq, Adebiyi, and Bakare (2018), and Sule et al. (2024), primarily examine earlier elections or focus on broad historical trends without offering a detailed analysis of the unique configurations of the 2023 contest. These include the unprecedented rise of third-party movements, shifting youth political engagement, and the strategic ethnic mobilization by major contenders.

Moreover, while scholars like Osaghae (2023) and Norris and Mattes (2023) have discussed ethnic cleavages in African democracies, they have not sufficiently interrogated the structural and institutional mechanisms that sustain these divisions in Nigeria’s current political framework. There is limited exploration of how electoral institutions, media narratives, and inter-group perceptions facilitated or countered ethnic voting patterns in the 2023 election. This gap leaves unanswered questions about the evolving dynamics of identity politics in Nigeria’s fourth republic.

Additionally, the role of social media, youth political consciousness, and regional agitation in reconfiguring ethnic alliances and voter behavior during the 2023 elections is underexplored. The rise of the Peter Obi-led "Obidient" movement, although frequently mentioned in media discourse, has not been deeply analyzed in academic literature for its ethnic implications and potential to transform or reinforce identity politics (Chukwurah, n.d.; Bokoro, n.d.).

This study seeks to fill these gaps by providing a comprehensive analysis of the 2023 presidential election through the lens of ethnic politics and by examining its implications for democratic sustainability, inter-ethnic trust, and political reforms in Nigeria.

1.3 Objective of the Study

1. To examine the impact of ethnic politics on voter behavior in the 2023 presidential election.

2. To assess the challenges ethnic politics poses to Nigeria’s democratic stability.

3. To explore strategies for mitigating ethnic divisions in future elections.

1.4 Research Questions

1. How did ethnic politics influence voter choices in the 2023 presidential election?

2. What are the key challenges ethnic politics presents to Nigeria’s democracy?

3. What measures can be adopted to reduce ethnic bias in elections?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

1. Ethnic affiliation significantly influenced voter decisions in the 2023 presidential election.

2. Ethnic politics increases the risk of electoral violence and democratic instability.

3. Inclusive policies and civic education can reduce ethnic-based voting patterns.

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study holds significant value for the advancement of democratic governance in Nigeria, particularly by shedding light on the enduring and disruptive role of ethnic politics in electoral processes. In a country as ethnically diverse as Nigeria with over 250 ethnic groups ethnic identity continues to be a central factor shaping political behavior, party alliances, and election outcomes (Jega, 2023; Isiaq, Adebiyi & Bakare, 2018). The 2023 presidential election further exemplified how ethnic considerations can influence voting patterns, marginalize minority groups, and intensify divisions within the polity. By investigating these dynamics, the study aims to deepen scholarly and practical understanding of how ethnic politics threatens national cohesion and undermines democratic consolidation.

For policymakers, the findings of this research will provide evidence-based insights into the structural and institutional drivers of ethnic-based politics. These insights will be valuable in designing policies that address the root causes of ethnic bias in political competition, such as marginalization, unequal resource distribution, and weak national identity. The study will also offer strategic recommendations on how to foster inclusive policies that promote equitable representation and integration across Nigeria’s diverse ethnic constituencies (Osaghae, 2023; Sule et al., 2024).

Electoral bodies such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) stand to benefit from this study through its analysis of how ethnic politics influences electoral violence, voter turnout, and party strategies. Understanding these issues is crucial for improving election management, refining voter education initiatives, and developing frameworks that promote issue-based rather than identity-based campaigning. The study’s findings may guide INEC and other electoral stakeholders in strengthening transparency, fairness, and national integration during electoral processes.

Furthermore, civil society organizations and advocacy groups will find the study useful in their efforts to promote democratic values and civic participation. By highlighting the dangers of ethnic manipulation in politics and offering practical strategies for fostering unity, the research can inform campaigns that encourage inter-ethnic dialogue, tolerance, and youth engagement in democratic processes (Chukwurah, n.d.; Norris & Mattes, 2023). Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of civic education and inclusive governance as tools for reducing ethnically motivated voting behaviors and fostering a sense of collective national identity.

Ultimately, this study contributes to the ongoing discourse on democratic survival in Nigeria by addressing a critical but underexplored aspect of its political system. It serves as a resource for scholars, political actors, and institutions committed to building a more cohesive, participatory, and equitable democratic society.

1.7 Scope of the Study

The study specifically examines the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria, with a focus on how ethnic affiliations influenced voting patterns, campaign strategies, and post-election tensions across the country’s six geopolitical zones. By analyzing the roles played by ethnic identity in shaping political alliances, voter preferences, and regional outcomes, the research aims to uncover the extent to which ethnicity determined electoral behavior. It also investigates the strategies adopted by political parties to appeal to ethnic sentiments and the resulting implications for national unity, democratic consolidation, and post-election conflicts, particularly in ethnically diverse and politically sensitive regions of Nigeria.

1.8 Operational Definition of Key Terms

Ethnic Politics – Political activities shaped by ethnic identity.

Democratic Survival – The sustenance of democratic governance.

Electoral Violence – Conflict arising from electoral processes.

Marginalization – Exclusion of certain ethnic groups from political power.

Voter Behavior – Patterns in voter decision-making.

Political Alliances – Coalitions formed along ethnic lines.

Civic Education – Programs to enhance political awareness.

Inclusive Governance – Government policies ensuring equal ethnic representation.